Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 38.788561 42.345577 46.311615 51.110198 56.827203 63.511862 72.062234
2025-07-27 35.062420 40.004990 45.976308 53.917091 64.532041 78.792606 100.557669
2025-08-03 32.362158 37.943379 45.039046 55.097829 69.721978 91.683048 131.064205
2025-08-10 30.096509 35.974228 43.727447 55.261756 73.194456 102.839383 165.014253
2025-08-17 27.776800 33.620553 41.518722 53.660959 73.459590 108.652751 192.853904
2025-08-24 25.865784 31.614200 39.533320 52.033197 73.236115 113.386359 222.372614
2025-08-31 25.340381 31.438722 40.092662 54.338627 80.135759 134.749003 326.236069
2025-09-07 23.939230 29.908411 38.498331 52.928788 79.929167 140.587912 389.936509
2025-09-14 22.768230 28.624588 37.159512 51.767409 79.953712 147.076755 476.326408
2025-09-21 21.386007 26.954552 35.111468 49.178560 76.668297 143.776015 501.382652
2025-09-28 20.646910 26.184277 34.398080 48.833187 77.964038 153.842586 670.210414
2025-10-05 20.805179 26.740996 35.791594 52.384751 88.476463 199.250669 2149.236979
2025-10-12 19.806909 25.639565 34.665097 51.601488 90.057306 220.990025 9861.049016
2025-10-19 19.514091 25.615455 35.337385 54.465316 102.078059 310.722588 NaN
2025-10-26 18.968619 25.145142 35.194429 55.666667 110.411533 413.985057 NaN
2025-11-02 18.323275 24.464634 34.611784 55.833507 115.890649 531.005833 NaN
2025-11-09 17.486633 23.422820 33.299311 54.204560 114.967295 587.491587 NaN
2025-11-16 16.719942 22.453530 32.046201 52.548786 113.464972 639.832047 NaN
2025-11-23 16.548303 22.443145 32.519819 54.894072 127.622246 1213.025064 NaN
2025-11-30 15.915299 21.633120 31.455436 53.459712 126.563621 1426.279692 NaN
2025-12-07 15.359397 20.926575 30.539657 52.278483 126.213798 1760.512991 NaN
2025-12-14 14.664681 19.961032 29.087302 49.646534 118.902881 1513.315395 NaN
2025-12-21 14.284439 19.509420 28.580218 49.295532 121.532445 2232.836597 NaN